Strategic complexity in Israel-Iran showdown
With strategic and operational details in mind, an analysis in the CBS Evening News in the US gives a more complex picture of the current situations in West Asia involving the US, Israel and Iran. The Islamic republic has very officially warned of its readiness and willingness for massive retaliation through warfare 'without limit in time and space'.Bush' s chief military adviser to visit Tel Aviv
posted by James Wong Wing-On at 5:44 PM
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An Israeli Attack on Iran Benefits the Islamic Republic. As Israel contemplates militarily striking Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel empowers the resolve of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s hardliners to achieve greater security while harming United States strategic interests, Israeli security interests, Iranian dissident interests, and world economic interests. Monday’s WSJ Editorial charges that Israel has, “no choice but to defend themselves,” against the Iranian threat.
Yet even if Iran’s nuclear sites were bombed, virtually nothing could prevent the regime from rebuilding its nuclear sites. Bombing Iran would only further exacerbate and reinforce the belligerence of the fundamentalist regime, alienate pro-America Iranians, radicalize moderate support behind the unpopular regime, provide a pretext for the regime to crack down on human rights, and undermine the democratic movement in Iran.
A report released by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), considered a major proponent of the pro-Israel lobby in the U.S., “does not advocate military action against Iran’s nuclear program. The time is not right for such a decision.” Instead the report considers an attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure, which accounts for 80% of its export revenue, far more noteworthy.
On Thursday in the Asia Times, national and international security affairs analyst David Isenberg contends that the political shock from losing oil income would force the regime to rethink its nuclear aspirations. Conversely, he points out that an attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure may force oil prices to skyrocket which would hurt consumers worldwide. News of Israel's military exercise earlier this month caused the price of U.S. July crude to rise by US$2.69 and settle at US$134.62 a barrel last Friday.
An attack on Iran’s nuclear sites alone may cause crude oil to reach US$200 a barrel or more. Saturday’s Washington Post article interviewed PFC Energy analyst Mr. J. Robinson West who predicted, “A raid on Iran would convulse the markets. The price would go into uncharted territory. Pick a number.” The Post argues that the staggering cost of oil may dissuade U.S. military action or hamper the administration’s blessing of an Israeli attack.
An Israeli attack on Iran’s oil exporting infrastructure may lead to protracted war that would undoubtedly affect crude prices. Any temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which ships nearly 40 per cent of the world’s oil, would force oil importing nations to rely upon oil exporting countries to make up for lost output. Inevitably, the regime will retaliate against an Israeli attack and possibly against American interests in the region with powerful long range missiles. A state of mutually assured destruction is more than likely to develop between Israel and Iran due to the spread of technology. Consequently, Israel must reassess its long term security strategy with Iran and view the nature of Iran’s regime as its primary existential threat. Otherwise, only the Islamic republic stands to win.
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